Possible scenario
Policy Mix Repriced
15% Chance
The bond-market stress forces investors to reassess the interaction between the Bank of Korea's tightening bias and the government's record budget plans. Markets focus less on the buyback mechanics and more on whether policy coordination can reduce issuance and rate-risk concerns.
Initial impacts
- Riskier companies' borrowing costs Down
- Market volatility Down
- 10-year Treasury yield Up
- US dollar Up
Secondary impacts
- Finance +0.5%
- Utilities +0.3%
Portfolio impact
S&P 500+0.3%
Each figure is the modeled move of the S&P 500 if the outcome occurs. For information only. Not investment advice.
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