Possible scenario
Intervention Gets Larger
30% Chance
Authorities conclude that daily operations need to be larger or more coordinated to offset heavy issuance concerns and global rate pressure. The move prevents a disorderly break but signals that officials remain worried about market depth.
Initial impacts
- Riskier companies' borrowing costs Up
- Market volatility Up
- 10-year Treasury yield Down
- US dollar Up
Secondary impacts
- Finance -0.7%
- Technology -0.6%
Portfolio impact
S&P 500-0.4%
Each figure is the modeled move of the S&P 500 if the outcome occurs. For information only. Not investment advice.
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