Possible scenario
Contained Siberia Outbreak
45% Chance
The most likely path is that the Trump-Putin call produces limited cooperation and Russia maintains that the outbreak is geographically contained. Moscow allows selective data sharing while keeping tight control over the narrative, reducing the chance of a broader market shock.
Initial impacts
- Riskier companies' borrowing costs Down
- Market volatility Down
- Oil prices Down
- US dollar Down
Secondary impacts
- Healthcare +0.8%
- Consumer Services +0.2%
Portfolio impact
S&P 500+0.1%
Each figure is the modeled move of the S&P 500 if the outcome occurs. For information only. Not investment advice.
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