Possible scenario
Regional War Escalates
28% Chance
Iran or aligned militias use the comment as rhetorical cover for more strikes against Israel, Gulf states, or U.S. positions overseas. This is more plausible than a direct attack on California and would quickly affect oil, defense, travel, and credit markets.
Initial impacts
- Riskier companies' borrowing costs Up
- Market volatility Up
- 10-year Treasury yield Down
- Oil prices Up
- US dollar Up
Secondary impacts
- Energy +4.3%
Portfolio impact
S&P 500-1.7%
Each figure is the modeled move of the S&P 500 if the outcome occurs. For information only. Not investment advice.
Keeping an eye on this scenario?
Tilt can alert you when its probability or impact shifts, or send you a recommendation when it crosses a threshold.