Possible scenario
Rapid Walkback
42% Chance
The most likely path is that the White House, Pentagon, and senior Republicans contain the damage by saying Trump was joking, misquoted, or speaking rhetorically. Iran still exploits the statement for propaganda, but U.S. military posture around Israel and California does not materially change.
Initial impacts
- Riskier companies' borrowing costs Up
- 10-year Treasury yield Down
- Market volatility Up
- Oil prices Down
- US dollar Up
Secondary impacts
- Energy +0.3%
- Technology
Portfolio impact
S&P 500-0.1%
Each figure is the modeled move of the S&P 500 if the outcome occurs. For information only. Not investment advice.
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