Possible scenario
Institutional Backlash
20% Chance
Congressional Democrats, California officials, and some national security Republicans frame the remark as an abuse of office and a threat to U.S. civilians. The immediate risk is domestic political dysfunction rather than a direct military strike.
Initial impacts
- Riskier companies' borrowing costs Up
- Market volatility Up
- 10-year Treasury yield Down
- Oil prices Up
- US dollar Up
Secondary impacts
- Technology -1.0%
Portfolio impact
S&P 500-1.0%
Each figure is the modeled move of the S&P 500 if the outcome occurs. For information only. Not investment advice.
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