Possible scenario
Security Setback Returns
15% Chance
A new Houthi warning, drone launch or mistaken identification of a commercial vessel undermines confidence in the route. Even without a major casualty, owners quickly revert to Cape of Good Hope routing until naval forces and insurers clarify the threat environment.
Initial impacts
- Riskier companies' borrowing costs Up
- Market volatility Up
- Oil prices Up
- 10-year Treasury yield Down
- US dollar Up
Secondary impacts
- Energy +1.2%
- Industrials
Portfolio impact
S&P 500-1.0%
Each figure is the modeled move of the S&P 500 if the outcome occurs. For information only. Not investment advice.
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