Possible scenario
Pro-EU Continuity Wins
45% Chance
Evika Siliņa's New Unity finishes first and keeps Latvia broadly aligned with EU sanctions policy, NATO deterrence and higher defense spending. Coalition talks are difficult, but mainstream parties maintain a cordon sanitaire around openly pro-Kremlin forces such as Stability!.
Initial impacts
- Market volatility Down
- Riskier companies' borrowing costs Down
Secondary impacts
- Industrials +0.1%
Portfolio impact
S&P 500+0.1%
Each figure is the modeled move of the S&P 500 if the outcome occurs. For information only. Not investment advice.
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