Possible scenario
Populists Become Kingmakers
15% Chance
A fragmented Saeima gives Ainārs Šlesers's Latvia First or another populist bloc leverage over coalition formation. This does not necessarily mean a pro-Kremlin government, but it increases uncertainty over sanctions enforcement, defense spending and relations with Brussels.
Initial impacts
- Market volatility Up
- Riskier companies' borrowing costs Up
- US dollar Up
Secondary impacts
- Utilities -0.1%
- Finance -0.1%
- Industrials +0.1%
Portfolio impact
S&P 500-0.1%
Each figure is the modeled move of the S&P 500 if the outcome occurs. For information only. Not investment advice.
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