Possible scenario
Severe Strait Disruption
25% Chance
The incident is followed by mine reports, further warnings from the IRGC, or another strike that sharply reduces tanker traffic. This would be a major escalation because the Strait of Hormuz carries a large share of global seaborne oil and LNG flows.
Initial impacts
- Riskier companies' borrowing costs Up
- Market volatility Up
- 10-year Treasury yield Down
- Oil prices Up
- US dollar Up
Secondary impacts
- Energy +4.0%
Portfolio impact
S&P 500-2.0%
Each figure is the modeled move of the S&P 500 if the outcome occurs. For information only. Not investment advice.
Keeping an eye on this scenario?
Tilt can alert you when its probability or impact shifts, or send you a recommendation when it crosses a threshold.