Possible scenario
Contained Tanker Incident
35% Chance
The fire is contained without evidence of a missile strike or new mine hit. Iran and Oman allow a narrow rescue and salvage window, reducing immediate fears of a wider closure while leaving the restricted-zone regime intact.
Initial impacts
- Riskier companies' borrowing costs Down
- Market volatility Down
- Oil prices Down
- US dollar Up
Secondary impacts
- Consumer Services +0.3%
- Energy -0.2%
Portfolio impact
S&P 500+0.4%
Each figure is the modeled move of the S&P 500 if the outcome occurs. For information only. Not investment advice.
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