Possible scenario
Confirmed Iranian Attack
30% Chance
Evidence points to an IRGC drone, missile, or mine strike on the tanker inside the restricted zone. Washington and Gulf states respond with naval escorts and sanctions but stop short of direct strikes on Iranian territory.
Initial impacts
- Riskier companies' borrowing costs Up
- Market volatility Up
- Oil prices Up
- 10-year Treasury yield Down
- US dollar Up
Secondary impacts
- Energy +2.2%
Portfolio impact
S&P 500-1.3%
Each figure is the modeled move of the S&P 500 if the outcome occurs. For information only. Not investment advice.
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