Possible scenario
Military Escalation Widens
27% Chance
Iran’s campaign against Gulf shipping intensifies, forcing the US, Saudi Arabia, and the UAE to consider direct strikes on IRGC launch sites and coastal radar. The market reprices the risk of a temporary Strait closure, with crude, volatility, and credit stress moving sharply higher.
Initial impacts
- Riskier companies' borrowing costs Up
- Market volatility Up
- 10-year Treasury yield Down
- Oil prices Up
- US dollar Up
Secondary impacts
- Energy +4.6%
Portfolio impact
S&P 500-3.5%
Each figure is the modeled move of the S&P 500 if the outcome occurs. For information only. Not investment advice.
Keeping an eye on this scenario?
Tilt can alert you when its probability or impact shifts, or send you a recommendation when it crosses a threshold.