Possible scenario
Negotiated Legal Compromise
25% Chance
The administration looks for a political compromise that avoids a large deportation-protection lapse while preserving a tough immigration posture. A limited statutory or administrative bridge becomes more likely if business groups, Catholic organizations, and Central American officials lobby the White House.
Secondary impacts
- Consumer Services +0.1%
- Consumer Non-Cyclicals +0.1%
- Business Services +0.1%
Portfolio impact
S&P 500+0.0%
Each figure is the modeled move of the S&P 500 if the outcome occurs. For information only. Not investment advice.
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