Possible scenario
Orderly Stablecoin Migration
45% Chance
EU crypto firms largely comply with ESMA’s Jan. 8 deadline, removing or restricting non-MiCA stablecoins such as USDT for EU users. Liquidity migrates toward USDC and MiCA-authorized euro stablecoins, with limited disruption because major venues had already been preparing after Tether refused a MiCA license.
Initial impacts
- Bitcoin Up
Secondary impacts
- Technology +0.1%
- Finance +0.1%
Tickers
- CRCL+6.1%
- +1.6%
Portfolio impact
S&P 500+0.0%
Each figure is the modeled move of the S&P 500 if the outcome occurs. For information only. Not investment advice.
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