Possible scenario
Narrow Crypto Deal
18% Chance
If broader expired-tax-cut politics prove too difficult, the most bipartisan portion can still move separately. A narrower crypto and technical-corrections bill would be easier to pass but would have limited macro significance.
Initial impacts
- Bitcoin Up
Secondary impacts
- Finance +0.3%
- Technology +0.2%
Tickers
- COIN+2.9%
- +2.2%
Portfolio impact
S&P 500+0.1%
Each figure is the modeled move of the S&P 500 if the outcome occurs. For information only. Not investment advice.
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