Possible scenario
Lame-Duck Bargaining
28% Chance
The unanimous step proves the bill is alive, but leaders may still decide the final vote is safer after Election Day. This path keeps bipartisan momentum while allowing both parties to campaign on unresolved tax priorities.
Initial impacts
- 10-year Treasury yield Up
- Riskier companies' borrowing costs Up
- Market volatility Down
- Bitcoin Up
Secondary impacts
- Finance +0.2%
- Consumer Cyclicals +0.1%
Portfolio impact
S&P 500+0.1%
Each figure is the modeled move of the S&P 500 if the outcome occurs. For information only. Not investment advice.
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