Possible scenario
Fast Pre-Election Enactment
42% Chance
The unanimous Senate advance suggests party leaders have agreed not to use the bill as a late-cycle hostage. With the House already showing overwhelming support, the most likely path is quick final passage before campaign travel fully absorbs Congress.
Initial impacts
- Market volatility Down
- 10-year Treasury yield Up
- Bitcoin Up
- Riskier companies' borrowing costs Down
Secondary impacts
- Finance +0.5%
- Technology +0.3%
Portfolio impact
S&P 500+0.3%
Each figure is the modeled move of the S&P 500 if the outcome occurs. For information only. Not investment advice.
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