Possible scenario
Deal Clarified
45% Chance
The most likely outcome is a negotiated clarification in which the White House, Seoul, and project sponsors preserve the Alaska LNG framework while redefining what South Korea has actually committed to buy or finance. Trump’s threat functions mainly as leverage after Seoul disputed his investment claims.
Secondary impacts
- Energy +0.2%
- Industrials +0.1%
Portfolio impact
S&P 500+0.0%
Each figure is the modeled move of the S&P 500 if the outcome occurs. For information only. Not investment advice.
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