Possible scenario
Cost Increase Accepted
25% Chance
Washington could convert the threat into a harder commercial stance, asking South Korea to accept higher tolling charges, firmer offtake volumes, or more upfront financing. Seoul may tolerate some cost increase to protect the wider trade relationship reached in 2025.
Secondary impacts
- Energy +0.3%
- Utilities -0.1%
- Industrials +0.1%
Portfolio impact
S&P 500+0.0%
Each figure is the modeled move of the S&P 500 if the outcome occurs. For information only. Not investment advice.
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