Possible scenario
Risk Premium Persists
25% Chance
The Saudi guarantee prevents a panic bid, but traders remain unwilling to remove the Red Sea risk premium entirely. Shipping insurers, refiners, and commodity funds continue to price the chance of sporadic disruption around Bab al-Mandab.
Initial impacts
- Oil prices Up
- Market volatility Up
Secondary impacts
- Energy +0.6%
- Industrials -0.2%
- Consumer Cyclicals -0.2%
Tickers
Portfolio impact
S&P 500-0.1%
Each figure is the modeled move of the S&P 500 if the outcome occurs. For information only. Not investment advice.
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