Possible scenario
Fresh Attack Escalates
20% Chance
A successful Houthi strike or near-miss convinces traders that Saudi assurances cannot fully neutralize transit risk. Oil quickly re-prices higher, while risk assets weaken on renewed concern over energy inflation and shipping disruption.
Initial impacts
- Riskier companies' borrowing costs Up
- Market volatility Up
- Oil prices Up
- 10-year Treasury yield Down
- US dollar Up
Secondary impacts
- Energy +1.8%
Portfolio impact
S&P 500-1.1%
Each figure is the modeled move of the S&P 500 if the outcome occurs. For information only. Not investment advice.
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