Possible scenario
Holdout Persists
20% Chance
Greece and Spain may conclude that their own air-defense needs outweigh NATO pressure, especially given tensions in the Eastern Mediterranean and domestic political sensitivities. This would leave Ukraine more exposed until new production or other allies fill the gap.
Initial impacts
- Riskier companies' borrowing costs Up
- Market volatility Up
- 10-year Treasury yield Down
- US dollar Up
Secondary impacts
- Industrials +0.3%
Tickers
Portfolio impact
S&P 500-0.3%
Each figure is the modeled move of the S&P 500 if the outcome occurs. For information only. Not investment advice.
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