Possible scenario
Allied Military Response
25% Chance
The confirmed IRGC video increases pressure on Washington to restore deterrence after repeated tanker hits despite escorts. The likely response is calibrated military action or more aggressive maritime interdiction designed to stop launches without triggering a full regional war.
Initial impacts
- Riskier companies' borrowing costs Up
- Market volatility Up
- 10-year Treasury yield Down
- Oil prices Up
- US dollar Up
Secondary impacts
- Energy +1.9%
Portfolio impact
S&P 500-0.9%
Each figure is the modeled move of the S&P 500 if the outcome occurs. For information only. Not investment advice.
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