Possible scenario
Domestic Backlash Returns
18% Chance
The repeal triggers resistance inside Fidesz's nationalist and conservative base, pushing the government to replace the old law with narrower but still controversial restrictions. Brussels and Budapest avoid an immediate rupture, but investors price a higher chance of renewed conditionality disputes.
Initial impacts
- Market volatility Up
- Riskier companies' borrowing costs Up
Secondary impacts
- Finance -0.2%
- Consumer Services -0.1%
Portfolio impact
S&P 500-0.2%
Each figure is the modeled move of the S&P 500 if the outcome occurs. For information only. Not investment advice.
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