Possible scenario
Contained Prolonged Unrest
28% Chance
Talks fail to produce a quick settlement, but the state retains control of ministries and transport links. Demonstrations continue in Tirana and other cities, creating political strain without forcing Rama's resignation in the near term.
Initial impacts
- Market volatility Up
- Riskier companies' borrowing costs Up
- US dollar Up
Secondary impacts
- Consumer Services -0.2%
- Finance -0.1%
Portfolio impact
S&P 500-0.2%
Each figure is the modeled move of the S&P 500 if the outcome occurs. For information only. Not investment advice.
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