Possible scenario
Sticky Winter Inflation
20% Chance
Inflation may remain sticky into the winter as the September energy price-cap rise passes through and wage growth keeps services prices firm. In this path, the September CPI beat is interpreted as the start of a renewed persistence problem rather than a one-month miss.
Initial impacts
- Riskier companies' borrowing costs Up
- 10-year Treasury yield Up
- Market volatility Up
Secondary impacts
- Consumer Cyclicals -0.8%
- Consumer Services -0.5%
- Finance -0.4%
Portfolio impact
S&P 500-0.4%
Each figure is the modeled move of the S&P 500 if the outcome occurs. For information only. Not investment advice.
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