Possible scenario
Hawkish Hold Prevails
42% Chance
The most likely outcome is that the Bank of England holds rates at its next meeting while using the September inflation overshoot, stronger wage growth, and the energy price-cap increase to justify a more hawkish tone. Andrew Bailey is likely to stress that inflation above target can be tolerated only if second-round wage and services effects do not persist.
Initial impacts
- Riskier companies' borrowing costs Up
- 10-year Treasury yield Up
- Market volatility Up
Secondary impacts
- Consumer Cyclicals -0.3%
- Technology -0.3%
- Finance -0.2%
Portfolio impact
S&P 500-0.2%
Each figure is the modeled move of the S&P 500 if the outcome occurs. For information only. Not investment advice.
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