Possible scenario
War Shifts Westward
20% Chance
Rather than ending the war, the Kordofan victory redirects the main front toward West Kordofan and Darfur. This is plausible because the RSF's core power base remains in western Sudan, where tribal alliances and cross-border routes give it more resilience.
Initial impacts
- Riskier companies' borrowing costs Up
- Market volatility Up
- Oil prices Up
Secondary impacts
- Energy +0.1%
Portfolio impact
S&P 500-0.1%
Each figure is the modeled move of the S&P 500 if the outcome occurs. For information only. Not investment advice.
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