Possible scenario
Political Talks Revive
25% Chance
The battlefield shift gives Abdel Fattah al-Burhan's government leverage to re-enter talks backed by Saudi Arabia, the United States, the African Union, and IGAD. RSF leader Mohamed Hamdan Dagalo, known as Hemedti, faces pressure to preserve forces in Darfur rather than fight costly urban battles in Kordofan.
Initial impacts
- Riskier companies' borrowing costs Down
- Market volatility Down
- Oil prices Down
Secondary impacts
- Finance +0.1%
Portfolio impact
S&P 500+0.1%
Each figure is the modeled move of the S&P 500 if the outcome occurs. For information only. Not investment advice.
Keeping an eye on this scenario?
Tilt can alert you when its probability or impact shifts, or send you a recommendation when it crosses a threshold.