Possible scenario
Army Consolidates Kordofan
40% Chance
The Sudanese Armed Forces use the capture of the last RSF-held urban position in North Kordofan to secure the El-Obeid corridor and push RSF units into rural areas. This is the most likely path because the RSF has become increasingly dependent on mobility, local alliances, and cross-regional supply routes rather than fixed urban defense in central Sudan.
Initial impacts
- Oil prices Down
- Market volatility Down
Portfolio impact
S&P 500+0.0%
Each figure is the modeled move of the S&P 500 if the outcome occurs. For information only. Not investment advice.
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