Possible scenario
Institutional Crisis Escalates
25% Chance
The unauthorized handover becomes a wider confrontation among the police, prosecutors, courts, and the presidency. Memories of the June 2024 coup attempt make security-force cohesion a central concern, even though global market spillovers remain limited.
Initial impacts
- Riskier companies' borrowing costs Up
- Market volatility Up
- 10-year Treasury yield Down
- US dollar Up
- Copper Up
Secondary impacts
- Non-Energy Materials -0.4%
Portfolio impact
S&P 500-0.2%
Each figure is the modeled move of the S&P 500 if the outcome occurs. For information only. Not investment advice.
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