Possible scenario
Orderly Credit Repricing
38% Chance
CCC stress stays mostly contained to the weakest borrowers while BB and single-B credits retain access to funding. Defaults rise, but the market clears through distressed exchanges, coupon step-ups, and sponsor equity injections rather than a broad credit freeze.
Initial impacts
- Riskier companies' borrowing costs Up
- 10-year Treasury yield Down
- Market volatility Up
Secondary impacts
- Consumer Cyclicals -0.6%
- Finance -0.5%
- Consumer Services -0.3%
Portfolio impact
S&P 500-0.7%
Each figure is the modeled move of the S&P 500 if the outcome occurs. For information only. Not investment advice.
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