Possible scenario
Default Cycle Accelerates
31% Chance
CCC yields at 18% prove to be a leading signal of a broader default wave as refinancing windows close. Weak consumer, telecom, and media borrowers become the first casualties, with private-credit lenders forced to recognize losses more quickly.
Initial impacts
- Riskier companies' borrowing costs Up
- Market volatility Up
- 10-year Treasury yield Down
Secondary impacts
- Finance -1.5%
- Consumer Services -0.9%
- Consumer Cyclicals -0.8%
Portfolio impact
S&P 500-1.9%
Each figure is the modeled move of the S&P 500 if the outcome occurs. For information only. Not investment advice.
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