Possible scenario
Limited Attack Confirmed
32% Chance
Independent imagery, Houthi media, or Saudi clarification later confirms a limited strike attempt near Riyadh. Damage is contained, with no major production loss, but the confirmation reinforces the pattern of escalating Houthi reach into Saudi territory.
Initial impacts
- Market volatility Up
- Oil prices Up
- Riskier companies' borrowing costs Up
- 10-year Treasury yield Down
Secondary impacts
- Energy +1.3%
- Consumer Services -0.3%
Portfolio impact
S&P 500-0.7%
Each figure is the modeled move of the S&P 500 if the outcome occurs. For information only. Not investment advice.
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