Possible scenario
Diplomatic Off-Ramp Emerges
20% Chance
Both governments use the detection test to create a verification dialogue rather than a public confrontation. Technical teams compare seismic and radionuclide data, reducing the risk that allegations over low-yield or decoupled activity become a broader arms-control rupture.
Initial impacts
- Riskier companies' borrowing costs Down
- Market volatility Down
- 10-year Treasury yield Up
- US dollar Down
Secondary impacts
- Technology +0.7%
- Consumer Cyclicals +0.5%
Portfolio impact
S&P 500+0.5%
Each figure is the modeled move of the S&P 500 if the outcome occurs. For information only. Not investment advice.
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