Possible scenario
Compliance Dispute Escalates
24% Chance
Washington moves from technical signaling to a formal compliance dispute, increasing pressure on Beijing over alleged decoupled nuclear activity. China rejects the claim and accuses the United States of undermining the Comprehensive Nuclear-Test-Ban Treaty framework.
Initial impacts
- Riskier companies' borrowing costs Up
- Market volatility Up
- 10-year Treasury yield Down
- US dollar Up
Secondary impacts
- Industrials +1.8%
- Technology -1.5%
Portfolio impact
S&P 500-0.8%
Each figure is the modeled move of the S&P 500 if the outcome occurs. For information only. Not investment advice.
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