Possible scenario
Negotiated De-escalation
20% Chance
Iran uses the attack surge to regain leverage, then accepts a temporary deconfliction arrangement through Oman, Qatar, or Switzerland. The most plausible deal is not a durable settlement, but it lowers immediate strike frequency and reassures oil markets.
Initial impacts
- Riskier companies' borrowing costs Down
- Market volatility Down
- Oil prices Down
- 10-year Treasury yield Up
- US dollar Down
Secondary impacts
- Energy -2.0%
Portfolio impact
S&P 500+1.0%
Each figure is the modeled move of the S&P 500 if the outcome occurs. For information only. Not investment advice.
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