Possible scenario
Contained Maritime Campaign
38% Chance
Iran sustains a high tempo of drone and missile attacks, but U.S., British, French, Emirati, and Saudi naval assets improve interception rates and keep most traffic moving. Markets price a persistent security premium rather than a full supply shock because Gulf exports had already begun recovering before the latest escalation.
Initial impacts
- Market volatility Up
- Riskier companies' borrowing costs Up
- Oil prices Up
- 10-year Treasury yield Down
- US dollar Up
Secondary impacts
- Energy +1.7%
Portfolio impact
S&P 500-0.6%
Each figure is the modeled move of the S&P 500 if the outcome occurs. For information only. Not investment advice.
Keeping an eye on this scenario?
Tilt can alert you when its probability or impact shifts, or send you a recommendation when it crosses a threshold.