Possible scenario
Coalition Retaliates Militarily
27% Chance
Washington and Gulf partners decide that the attack tempo is too high to absorb defensively and conduct targeted strikes on IRGC coastal launchers, radars, and drone storage sites. The most likely outcome is a calibrated exchange, but the risk of U.S. or Gulf casualties rises sharply.
Initial impacts
- Riskier companies' borrowing costs Up
- Market volatility Up
- 10-year Treasury yield Down
- Oil prices Up
- US dollar Up
Secondary impacts
- Energy +3.0%
Portfolio impact
S&P 500-1.3%
Each figure is the modeled move of the S&P 500 if the outcome occurs. For information only. Not investment advice.
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