Possible scenario
Renewed Gulf Disruption
28% Chance
The price break below $100 could prove short-lived if Houthis or aligned groups follow the Riyadh and Yanbu attacks with another strike. Markets would quickly rebuild a Gulf supply-risk premium because Saudi export infrastructure has already been hit twice in a week.
Initial impacts
- Market volatility Up
- Riskier companies' borrowing costs Up
- Oil prices Up
- 10-year Treasury yield Down
- US dollar Up
Secondary impacts
- Energy +2.5%
Portfolio impact
S&P 500-0.9%
Each figure is the modeled move of the S&P 500 if the outcome occurs. For information only. Not investment advice.
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