Possible scenario
Demand Weakness Dominates
20% Chance
The June drop in Chinese oil imports remains an important background signal. If traders decide weak Asian demand is overwhelming Gulf supply risk, Brent could keep falling even while Saudi security concerns persist.
Initial impacts
- Oil prices Down
- 10-year Treasury yield Down
- Riskier companies' borrowing costs Up
- Market volatility Up
- Copper Down
Secondary impacts
- Energy -2.4%
Portfolio impact
S&P 500-1.0%
Each figure is the modeled move of the S&P 500 if the outcome occurs. For information only. Not investment advice.
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