Possible scenario
Pause Gets Extended
40% Chance
The most likely path is that the U.S. District Court for the District of Columbia keeps the removal freeze in place beyond Oct. 26 after finding Interior's public notice and consultation record incomplete. The judge focuses on procedural defects rather than permanently blocking the project.
Portfolio impact
S&P 5000.0%
Each figure is the modeled move of the S&P 500 if the outcome occurs. For information only. Not investment advice.
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