Possible scenario
Strikes Resume Quickly
25% Chance
Ukraine follows the recent Lukoil and Volgograd strikes with another attack on Russian refining infrastructure. The headline about rising output is treated as temporary, and traders rebuild a small geopolitical risk premium in crude.
Initial impacts
- Market volatility Up
- Oil prices Up
- Riskier companies' borrowing costs Up
- US dollar Up
Secondary impacts
- Energy +0.6%
Portfolio impact
S&P 500-0.2%
Each figure is the modeled move of the S&P 500 if the outcome occurs. For information only. Not investment advice.
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