Possible scenario
Repairs Restore Output
45% Chance
Repairs at damaged Russian refineries hold, allowing crude output and processing rates to rebound from the recent drone-driven lows. Moscow uses the recovery to stabilize domestic fuel supply and modestly increase crude availability to export channels.
Initial impacts
- Oil prices Down
Secondary impacts
- Energy -0.3%
- Consumer Cyclicals +0.1%
Portfolio impact
S&P 500-0.0%
Each figure is the modeled move of the S&P 500 if the outcome occurs. For information only. Not investment advice.
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