Possible scenario
Successful Houthi Strike
20% Chance
The warning proves operational rather than rhetorical, and a Houthi drone or missile penetrates Saudi defenses. A successful hit on aviation or energy infrastructure would move the event from airspace-risk management into a material Gulf security shock.
Initial impacts
- Riskier companies' borrowing costs Up
- Market volatility Up
- 10-year Treasury yield Down
- Oil prices Up
- US dollar Up
Secondary impacts
- Consumer Services -2.9%
Portfolio impact
S&P 500-1.6%
Each figure is the modeled move of the S&P 500 if the outcome occurs. For information only. Not investment advice.
Keeping an eye on this scenario?
Tilt can alert you when its probability or impact shifts, or send you a recommendation when it crosses a threshold.