Possible scenario
Limited Military Escalation
27% Chance
Saudi Arabia and partners respond with air-defense reinforcement, intelligence support, and limited strikes or interceptions, while the Houthis continue threats. The Red Sea truce remains under pressure, but neither side immediately moves to a full regional war footing.
Initial impacts
- Market volatility Up
- Riskier companies' borrowing costs Up
- 10-year Treasury yield Down
- Oil prices Up
- US dollar Up
Secondary impacts
- Consumer Services -1.7%
Portfolio impact
S&P 500-0.7%
Each figure is the modeled move of the S&P 500 if the outcome occurs. For information only. Not investment advice.
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