Possible scenario
Airspace Risk Contained
38% Chance
The Houthi warning leads more carriers to avoid portions of Saudi airspace, but no immediate successful strike follows. Riyadh and Jeddah airports continue operating with delays, higher insurance costs, and longer routings, while markets price the event as a contained regional aviation disruption.
Initial impacts
- Market volatility Up
- Oil prices Up
Secondary impacts
- Consumer Services -0.9%
- Industrials -0.4%
Portfolio impact
S&P 500-0.3%
Each figure is the modeled move of the S&P 500 if the outcome occurs. For information only. Not investment advice.
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