Possible scenario
Talks Track Reopens
20% Chance
The SNSC backing is interpreted as a sign that Iran's security establishment still wants a controlled diplomatic channel. If sanctions-relief formulas become more concrete, indirect talks could resume despite parliamentary objections.
Initial impacts
- Market volatility Down
- Oil prices Down
Secondary impacts
- Energy -0.2%
Portfolio impact
S&P 500+0.0%
Each figure is the modeled move of the S&P 500 if the outcome occurs. For information only. Not investment advice.
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