Possible scenario
Managed Parliamentary Constraints
25% Chance
The impeachment effort does not remove Araghchi, but it forces the Rouhani-era diplomat to operate under tighter political supervision. This preserves the foreign minister while making any nuclear or sanctions talks slower and more conditional.
Initial impacts
- Market volatility Up
- Oil prices Up
Secondary impacts
- Energy +0.1%
Portfolio impact
S&P 500-0.1%
Each figure is the modeled move of the S&P 500 if the outcome occurs. For information only. Not investment advice.
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